The New York Yankees are anticipated to make a strong comeback in the upcoming 2024 season following a disappointing performance in 2023. Baseball Prospectus, utilizing its PECOTA projected standings, foresees a promising trajectory for the Yankees in the forthcoming season.
PECOTA, an acronym for Player Empirical Comparison and Optimization Test Algorithm, is Baseball Prospectus’ proprietary system that forecasts player and team performance through simulations. By running over 1,000 simulations, the site generates a range of victory projections for each team. According to these simulations, the Yankees are poised for a significant resurgence in 2024.
They are predicted to win approximately 94.5 games, trailing the Houston Astros’ 94.6 projection for the best record in the American League by just a tenth of a win. This projection marks a substantial improvement for the Yankees, who fell short with only 83 wins last season, leading to them missing the playoffs. Beyond win-loss records (projected at 67.5 losses), Baseball Prospectus also forecasts that the Yankees will score 827 runs and concede 684 runs.
Furthermore, the standings suggest the Yankees have a 59.5% chance of clinching the AL East title, a division dominated by Baltimore in the previous season. Their odds of securing a Wild Card spot stand at 32%, with an overall playoff likelihood of 91.5%. Subsequently, the Yankees are given a 76.6% chance of advancing to the Division Series and an 11.7% chance of making it to the World Series. To bolster their roster towards achieving this projected success, the Yankees have acquired several key players. Notably, they traded for Juan Soto, a powerful hitter, and added outfielders Trent Grisham and Alex Verdugo to strengthen their outfield. Additionally, the signing of starter Marcus Stroman aims to fortify their pitching rotation. As the season approaches, Yankees pitchers and catchers are set to commence spring training in Tampa next week.
