Kevin Pelton of ESPN released his preseason projections yesterday, predicting the Atlanta Hawks will finish seventh in the Eastern Conference despite their notable offseason upgrades. Even more surprising is that teams like the Pacers, Celtics, and Bucks ranked ahead of Atlanta, despite dealing with significant injuries and roster changes.
Pelton’s model was very accurate last season but seems to have underestimated the Hawks this time. He defended his stance by calling Atlanta’s offseason “perhaps not transformative in the short term,” though he admitted he personally believes the Hawks will avoid the play-in tournament, but not reach a top-four spot in the East. Many see this as a slight to the team’s progress.
Last season, the Hawks’ young core became clearer, with players like Jalen Johnson, Dyson Daniels, and Zaccharie Risacher showing promise alongside Trae Young. However, injuries and inexperience limited their overall impact. Johnson missed time due to injury, and Risacher, still a rookie, improved significantly as the season went on.
This offseason, the Hawks added key pieces like Kristaps Porzingis to strengthen the starting lineup, while Nickeil Alexander-Walker and Luke Kennard bolstered the bench behind their strong backcourt. Despite assembling a roster poised to compete in the East, the Hawks are only projected to move up two spots in what’s considered one of the weakest Eastern Conferences in recent memory.
Eastern Conference Rankings Ignore Reality, Unfairly Favor Celtics and Pacers Over Hawks
The current Eastern Conference rankings are hard to justify, especially when considering the condition of the other teams. The Boston Celtics and Indiana Pacers are placed above the Atlanta Hawks, despite both squads losing key stars Jayson Tatum and Tyrese Haliburton to Achilles injuries. These players were central to their teams’ offenses and are virtually irreplaceable. Additionally, both teams lost their starting centers, Kristaps Porzingis and Myles Turner, who offered unique skill sets that are difficult to replace.
In contrast, the Hawks have added three talented players and appear to have improved versions of Dyson Daniels and Zaccharie Risacher. Kevin Pelton reiterated his surprise if Atlanta finishes in the top four in the East, but this stance is puzzling. There is a widely agreed-upon top four in the conference Cleveland, New York, Orlando, and Atlanta with some debate over the exact order. To rank the depleted Celtics and Pacers above the Hawks seems misguided unless the Hawks suffer significant injuries.
While the Hawks still need to prove themselves, the model’s skepticism likely stems from their early stage of development. Nevertheless, there’s no reason to doubt that Atlanta has made major improvements since last season, despite what the projections may suggest.
