With two minutes left in the 2024 AFC Championship Game, the Buffalo Bills were down by three to the Kansas City Chiefs. On a critical fourth-and-five, MVP quarterback Josh Allen threw a pass to tight end Dalton Kincaid wide open and in position to extend the drive. The pass, though slightly low, hit Kincaid in the hands. And he dropped it. Just like that, the Bills’ Super Bowl hopes vanished.
Kincaid, Buffalo’s first-round pick in 2023, was visibly devastated. Allen, however, quickly took responsibility for the failed connection, saying he needed to be better and get Kincaid more involved in the offense.
The numbers back up Allen’s self-criticism. Throughout the 2024 season, he and Kincaid never seemed to fully click. Only 69% of Kincaid’s 81 targets were considered catchable, and on passes over 10 air yards, just 37% were deemed catchable — among the worst in the NFL. Their poor connection became a glaring issue as Kincaid heads into year three of his $13.4 million rookie deal.
NFL analyst Joe Marino noted on the Locked on Bills podcast that the duo had the league’s highest rate of uncatchable passes, adding that chemistry never developed properly due to shifting personnel and coaching changes. Kincaid entered a system led by offensive coordinator Ken Dorsey, who was fired midseason. Joe Brady, promoted to OC afterward, remains in place for 2025 which could finally bring some consistency.
Ultimately, both Allen and Kincaid must shoulder the blame and work to improve their timing and connection heading into the 2025 season. As columnist Sal Maiorana put it, “It was not good… and it’s something that has to be fixed.”
