Even with Max Fried and Charlie Morton departing in free agency, the Atlanta Braves’ starting rotation has exceeded expectations in May, helping the team to a 10-7 record despite a sputtering offense. What’s remarkable is that this success comes from a rotation built almost entirely from within and without any big-ticket free agent signings.
General Manager Alex Anthopoulos has never been known for splurging in free agency. His strategy revolves around securing core players on long-term, often team-friendly contracts and making impactful trades when necessary. In fact, the biggest free agent deal he’s handed out was just $65 million to Marcell Ozuna—relatively modest by today’s standards, especially for a team with a payroll north of $200 million.
However, Anthopoulos once did pursue a marquee name on the open market: Aaron Nola. Coming off a stretch of consistent durability and effectiveness with the Phillies including over 30 WAR from 2017 to 2023 Nola was viewed as a potential ace addition to Atlanta’s rotation. The Braves reportedly offered him $162 million over six years, but Philadelphia was determined to retain him, ultimately re-signing Nola for seven years and $172 million.
In the first year of that deal, Nola was solid, posting a 3.57 ERA and making a league-leading 33 starts worth 3.7 WAR. But his performance in 2025 has been a different story. Nola currently sports a 1-7 record with a bloated 6.16 ERA through nine starts, and his advanced metrics suggest more regression than rebound.
Aaron Nola’s 2025 Advanced Metrics:
- xERA: 4.95 (19th percentile)
- Expected Batting Average (xBA): .284 (13th percentile)
- Fastball Velocity: 91.0 mph (9th percentile)
- Opponents’ AVG vs. fastball: .300
- Slugging vs. fastball: .850
While Nola still possesses swing-and-miss stuff (notably a strong chase rate and respectable strikeout numbers), the declining fastball velocity and hard contact allowed raise red flags especially for a pitcher over 30 in just year two of a seven-year contract.
Though it’s too early to completely dismiss Nola given his proven track record and past Cy Young contention, the early returns on his massive contract aren’t promising. And now, it seems the Braves may have dodged a financial misstep by not outbidding the Phillies.
In hindsight, Anthopoulos deserves more recognition for staying disciplined. Atlanta’s rotation is thriving without major spending, and that restraint may have saved them from a long-term burden.
